Flow Margin Analysis for A-4 2017 Auction


On September 6th, Technical Note 1 (ONS and EPE) was published regarding the methodology, assumptions and criteria for the definition of the remaining capacity of the SIN for Generation Flow. As foreseen in Administrative Rule No. 293 of August 2017, on November 10, 2017 was published the NT 0118/2017 referring to the margins of energy flow. Based on this document it is possible to know which projects will be eligible to compete in A-4 2017. The ePowerBay team conducted a series of TN analyzes to assist the Agents and provide insights for better evaluation of potential projects.

Registration of Projects and Evaluation of Technical Note

For the A-4 2017 Auction, 1676 projects were registered, totaling 48 GW.

The Northeastern states have a greater number of registered projects, and the states of BA, RN, PI and CE represent 70% of the projects (33.4 GW), mostly wind and solar.

Restriction problems caused by delays in works by Abengoa, Chesf and Eletrosul are still observed in this NT, similar to that presented for the 2nd LER 2016.

According to the NT, taking as reference the 4 states with the largest amount of registration, it is observed that there is a margin for flow of 13.7 GW.

The technical note shows that connections were requested in 196 candidate buses, of which 119 (60.7%) with availability and 77 (39.3%) with no space. Analyzing the Northeast, which is the region with the largest number of registered projects, it is observed that it has 68.8% of the total connection points with no margin, reflecting the delay of the works of Abengoa and Chesf.

In Bahia, the state with the largest number of registered projects, different from the previous NT, there is space for outlets in some regions, but the delays of Abengoa and Chesf have made it impossible to increase generation in almost all candidate buses located in the western area.

The state is affected by the following absence Abengoa works repealed by the MME:

  • SE 500 kV Barreiras II;

  • TL 500 kV Gilbués II - Barreiras II - Bom Jesus da Lapa II C1;

  • TL 500 kV Bom Jesus da Lapa - Igaporã III - Ibicoara - Sapeaçu C2;

And for the delay of the work of CHESF:

  • TL 500 kV Sapeaçu - Camaçari IV;

The following table shows the connection points with remaining runoff capacity for the 4 Northeast states with the highest amount of registration.

The following Map shows the projects and the connection points registered with remaining drainage margin. The states of Maranhão and Pernambuco present besides wind and solar projects, also hydraulic projects (PCHs).

AuctionSystematics:

I - First Phase:

INITIAL STEP: Entrepreneurs may submit a single bid, such that the price of this bid is equal to or less than the lower of the initial price of the product and the reference price. The ranking will be in ascending order of bid price, considering the SIN Remaining Capacity.

II - Second Phase:

CONTINUOUS STEP: Period in which the sellers, classified in the first stage, can submit bids for the product (s) under negotiation.

If in the Initial phase the competition for the connection point is very large, the proponent will suffer a loss in the sale price will bring a fall in the profitability of the Projects.


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